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US to World: Do As I Say, Not As I Do

jeff — Mon, 28 May 2007 18:29:00 GMT

Let's walk through this one more time.

US effectively bans offshore online gambling, but continues to allow onshore traditional gambling and online versions of the lottery and horse racing.
The tiny island nation of Antigua sues the US over discrimination in the World Trade Organization court.
The WTO rules in favor of Antigua and tells the US to allow offshore online gambling.

So, with the US stuck in a corner where they basically either have to allow online gambling or ban all forms of gambling within the US, what do they do? Well, you change the WTO gambling laws, of course.

After losing the case, the United States announced that it would take an unprecedented legal step to change the international commitments it made as part of the 1994 General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) treaty regulating the trade in services among the 150 members of the WTO.

Uhh...what? Does that mean that the US has the ability to change international law whenever they feel like it? What is the precedent being set here? I mean, just forget about the gambling aspect of this issue. Why would anyone in their right mind agree to something when the other person has shown that they will change the rules of the agreement when things don't go their way? Sebastian Sinclair, an Internet gambling industry analyst, makes a great point the in a NYT article, W.T.O. Explains Ruling Against U.S. Internet Gambling Ban:

[Sebastian Sinclair] said the larger issue was whether another, larger nation might use the ruling to challenge the United States' policy. And he said that the decision underscored a larger problem: that the United States is markedly out of step with many other nations, which not only allow Internet gambling but license and authorize Internet casinos within their shores.

The only reason why this isn't bigger news right now is that we are talking about gambling and mainstream media tends to shy away from "morally gray" subjects. It is kind of hard to explain in a 2 minute story why people should care about this regardless of what they think of gambling. It may take a little time, but I have a feeling this is not the last we have heard of this story.

Online Gambling Ban is Illegal!

jeff — Sun, 01 Apr 2007 21:52:00 GMT

Last Friday, the World Trade Organization (WTO) ruled that the U.S. online gambling ban was illegal. Oddly enough, this event coincided with the news that the founder of BetOnSports was arrested in the Dominican Republic. A perfect illustration of how the U.S. and the WTO are on completely opposite sides of this issue.

So, what does this mean? Well, for the immediate future it is only a paper victory since the WTO haven't yet punished the U.S. for breaking international law. The Bush administration concedes that they have violated a previous WTO ruling, but they contend that it doesn't matter because they are simply trying to "protect public order". Whatever. They can B.S. all they want. They are just delaying the inevitable. Either the U.S. is going to have to ban all forms of gambling or drop its attempts to ban online gambling. The Bush administration will do whatever they can to delay facing this decision as long as possible, but eventually the WTO will have to penalize the U.S. for not adhering to their ruling. Once that happens, everything will change.

You see, the problem with online gambling is one of motivation. Gambling is a leisure activity. People do it for fun. While there is a small group of people that make their living off of gambling or have a gambling problem, most don't need to gamble. So, when the anti-gambling lobby managed to get an online gambling ban in the Port Security Bill last year, no one cared enough to raise a major stink. A gambling ban does not change the day-to-day lives of most Americans. Even if people disagree with the ban in principal, there is no motivation to actually do anything about it.

The reason why WTO sanctions may change everything is that it would change focus on online gambling from a moral issue to an economic one. Some heavy fines by the WTO on the U.S. could be the lightning rod that actually motivates members of congress to get behind the regulation of online gambling instead of a ban. I think this could get especially interesting as the presidential election starts heating up near the end of the year.

Luck? Nope. It's all about playing the odds.

jeff — Sat, 24 Mar 2007 18:31:00 GMT

You are at the final table of a Texas Holdem tournament. Your hole cards are Jack Hearts and 10 Hearts and the flop is Ace Spades - King Spades - 6 Diamonds. You final opponent, $2K in the pot before the flop, and your opponent bets $1K. What are the odds the pot is offering you? What are the odds of improving your hand? Should you call or fold?

Yes, good poker players must be able to pick up tells, bluff, etc., but the most critical skill required to win in poker or any other form of gambling is to understand the odds. Knowing the statistical probabilities in any given situation, instead of focusing on "tricking" other players or "riding a lucky streak", should be a goal for all gamblers because:

Understanding stats helps limit your losses - Anyone who doesn't understand odds or ignores them will eventually get burnt. People who get "lucky" or string together a couple big wins are simply experiencing the positive results from a limited sample set. In other words, the guy that hits the $10K slots jackpot will still lose more than he wins over a long enough time period because the odds are stacked against you at all times in slots. The house always wins.
It is the foundation for other gambling skills - In poker, the great players use bluffs and base their reads off of how other players react in certian situations when there are certain odds. In other words, you can't go all in every hand and expect it to work. It works because in previous hands with similar odds to the current hand, you were able to knock out two other players with pocket aces.

So, while it is great to enjoy playing games and having fun, it is always more fun to win than to lose. It may be a pain at first to study odds and learn statistics, but once you get the hang of it you will end up having even more fun. Just remember that part of the learning process is to always play within yourself. The really smart players don't make big moves until they know the odds are in their favor.

Finally, when you play against the house remember that over time the house always wins, so you should consider the fact that the overall odds are never in your favor. Poker is obviously different because you are not playing against the house, but in general it is better to think of online casinos as a form of entertainment and not as a revenue source. Know your stuff, play the odds and have fun!

Mixed bag of news for online gambling

jeff — Sat, 24 Mar 2007 17:06:00 GMT

This is the first installment of our blogs for daily gambling news. Most of the gambling news blog entries will be a run down of what is going on recently with links and comments, but we also plan on presenting some in depth analysis for certain big events. Today, we are just going to run down the days top stories:

Yes, Massachusetts Congressman Barney Frank Favors A Return Of Internet Gambling but there are so many special interests in congress these days that I wouldn't hold my breath on Barney making an impact by himself. He is going to need a lot more help, which I have not seen yet.
A much more significant news item is that the EU Warns Germany about Internet Gambling Ban. What is happening here is that the US is being pushed into a corner by the EU because of international trade agreements. You see, the US sanctions land based gambling, state lotteries and horse racing, but is trying to ban online gambling. Sure, there has always been hypocrisy in Washington, but this is a little different because the issue in question crosses international boundaries. It appears that the international governing bodies, such at the World Trade Organization (WTO) will eventually push countries to either ban all forms of gambling or allow all forms of gambling. This all may come to a head when the WTO rules on a case filed with the WTO by the tiny nation of Antigua against the US. This case has been going on for some time now, so don't hold your breath for a ruling anytime soon, but we will keep you updated if there are any developments.
In Britain, online gambling is legal, but UK gambling firms bemoan budget tax deal. The online casinos are upset, but I would imagine they would prefer extra taxes by the US instead of the current ban.
For those people worried about how to get money that is currently being help by Neteller, NETeller says working to free up seized US funds. This is good news to a lot of US players that have been left out in the cold since the ban.

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jeff — Sat, 10 Mar 2007 19:42:00 GMT

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